Buying a new electric car now is a gamble. Because you don’t know how the tax incentives for EVs will change in the coming years. Which EVs do we want so badly that we still take the chance?
Due to all the uncertainty surrounding the subsidies and fixed costs of EVs, the number of registrations of new passenger cars fell slightly in October 2023. Last month, 28,362 new cars were registered. This is slightly less than the same period last year (28,802 units), a decrease of 1.5 percent.
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3 uncertainties surrounding EVs
We understand this wait-and-see attitude, because changes are coming in the electrical field and we do not yet know how they will turn out. These are the three biggest uncertainties:
1. Road tax for EVs
What exactly will happen to road tax on electric cars? The plan is that you will pay a quarter of the rate from 2025 and the full price from 2026. But what rate? Presumably that of petrol cars, but that is not yet 100 percent certain. And if that is the case, can you deduct the kilos of the heavy battery pack? That’s how it happened with the first hybrid cars; they were ‘matted’ to 125 kilos.
The RAI Association, which represents the interests of car importers, expects that private buyers in particular will drop out en masse if these rates actually apply: “The lack of clarity about and the level of car taxes for the period after 2025 deters consumers and stops the greening.”
2. SEPP subsidy scheme
At the same time, the current SEPP subsidy scheme for privately purchased new electric cars will expire in 2025. This also raises questions: will the scheme disappear or will it be replaced by a better scheme? If a 2,950 euro subsidy is not enough to get Dutch people to switch, that amount may have to be increased.
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3. Electricity price
An uncertainty that has been around for some time now is the price of electricity. For a long time you paid 21 cents per kilowatt hour and with that you could calculate whether electric driving was profitable for you. Two years ago the price of electricity went sky high and nowadays it fluctuates fairly consistently around 36 cents. But what will he do in the next five years? There is no point to be raised.
Most popular cars of October 2023
There is something else at play: low consumer confidence. Yet in October, thousands of Dutch people were brave enough to get into a new car.
Top 5 car models in October 2023
- Kia Picanto (1019 registrations)
- Volvo XC40 (759 registrations)
- Volkswagen Polo (746 registrations)
- Kia Niro (706 registrations)
- Tesla Model Y (647 registrations)
Of these five models, the Tesla Model Y fully electric in any case and a significant part of the registered Volvo’s XC40 and Kia’s Niro will be too. Unfortunately, BOVAG and RAI Association do not break down the figures by fuel.
Top 10 electric only
If we look at the models that only exist as fully electric cars, the top 10 for October looks as follows:
- Tesla Model Y (647)
- Tesla Model 3 (415)
- Volkswagen ID.4 (337)
- Volkswagen ID.3 (336)
- Skoda Enyaq (329)
- Audi Q4 E-Tron (303)
- BMW iX1 (262)
- BMW i4 (260)
- Renault Megane E-tech (249)
- Jeep Avenger (222)
We now know that the Tesla Model Y is popular in our country. The renewed enthusiasm for the Tesla Model 3 will be due to the new model. In places three, four, five and six there are electric models from the Volkswagen group. Audi’s salespeople will be disappointed that they have to treat their colleagues from Skoda and Volkswagen to cake, since the Q4 E-Tron has lost out to the Enyaq and the ID.4 in terms of sales numbers.
BMW does good business with us with its two cheapest EVs: the iX1 and the i4. Technically the new one BMW iX2 Comparably priced, but it will only be available at the dealer from March 2024. In the meantime, Renault is continuing smoothly with the electric Megane, the model that can keep up with the Clio and Captur in terms of sales figures. The Jeep Avenger ranks tenth and was responsible for more than 90 percent of Jeep sales in October.